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HomeQuality assessment of the 2021 European Union JRC MARS crop yield forecasts
Quality assessment of the 2021 European Union JRC MARS crop yield forecasts
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The accuracy of the JRC crop yield forecasts is assessed after each growing season using officially published national crop yields. This should improve the operational use of the MARS-Crop Yield Forecasting System (MCYFS). This report contains the quality assessment for 2018. All forecasted crops have been analysed, including soft wheat, grain maize, spring barley, winter barley, durum wheat, rye, triticale, sunflower, rapeseed, sugar beets, potatoes, green maize, soybean, and rice. A total of 234 crop-country combinations and a total number of 1,739 forecasts were evaluated. The evolution of the quality of the forecasts during the growing season as well as the final or end-of-campaign forecasts are calculated at Member State (MS) and EU-28, EU-15, and EU-12 level for 13 crops and 9 published Bulletins. The assessment for rice is also reported. Median relative percentage errors (RPE) of the final crop yield forecast for respectively soft wheat, grain maize, durum wheat, spring barley, winter barley, triticale, rye, rapeseed, sunflowers, potatoes, sugar beet, green maize, soybeans and rice equalled +4.51%, +1.5, +1.39, +0.96, +2.99, +3.16, +5.1, +0.89, -3.95, +1.44, +3.61, -2.13, +0.22 and +1.92. The variability of the RPE at EU-28 level decreased over time for soft wheat, grain maize, potatoes, rye, spring barley, sunflowers, winter barley, green maize and soybeans. The forecasts overestimate reported yields for almost all crops, particularly for soft wheat, rye, sugar beet, winter barley and triticale.
- Published:
- Corporate author(s): Joint Research Centre (European Commission)
- Personal author(s): Nisini Scacchiafichi, Luigi ; Van der Velde, Marijn
- Themes: Agricultural policy
- Subject: agricultural market , agricultural production , crop yield , EU Member State , meteorology , quality standard , report
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| ISSN 1831-9424 | ISBN 978-92-76-61584-2 | DOI 10.2760/317403 | Catalogue number KJ-NA-31-371-EN-N |
- Released on EU Publications:
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