In brief

On January 15th Bernardo Arévalo of the centre-left Movimiento Semilla (Semilla) was inaugurated as president. However, powerful political opponents will try consistently to prevent him from making progress on his policy priorities, which are to fight corruption and poverty. The struggle to neutralise his opponents will occupy Mr Arévalo for the rest of 2024 and is likely to undermine government effectiveness throughout his presidency. On the economic front, we expect Guatemala's GDP growth to decelerate this year in line with an economic slowdown in the US (the country's biggest export market and source of workers' remittances).

Read more: Guatemala's 2024 budget will constrain Mr Arévalo